| Day 1 Oral Presentations |
| |
Session 1A: Introduction |
Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES |
Time |
| 1A-0 |
Meeting and Webinar Logistics |
Kenneth Hamburger*, NRC/RES |
10:00 - 10:10 |
| 1A-1 |
Opening Remarks |
Ray Furstenau*, Director, NRC Office of Research |
10:10 - 10:20 |
| 1A-2 |
NRC PFHA Research Program Update |
Tom Aird*, NRC/RES |
10:20 - 10:35 |
| 1A-3 |
Presentation and Training: Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT) |
Karen Marsh, Benjamin Rance, Scott Mahlik*; Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) |
10:35 - 11:00 |
| 1A-4 |
Committee on the Safety of Nuclear Installations (CSNI) Working Group on External Events (WGEV) |
Minkyu, Kim*, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Division of Structural and Seismic Safety (WGEV Chair) |
11:00 - 11:25 |
| |
Break |
11:25 - 11:40 |
| |
Session 1B: Climate and Weather |
Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES |
Time |
| 1B-1 |
Overview of the U.S. Global Change Research Program |
Michael Kuperberg*, Executive Director, U.S. Global Research Program |
11:40 - 12:05 |
| 1B-2 |
A Coastal Flood Regime Shift Is on the Horizon |
William Sweet*, NOAA National Ocean Service |
12:05 - 12:30 |
| |
Lunch |
12:30 - 13:30 |
| 1B-3 |
Observation-based Trajectory of Future Sea Level for the Coastal United States Tracks Near High-end Model Projections |
Benjamin Hamlington*1, Don Chambers2, Thomas Frederikse1, Soenke Dangendorf3, Severine Fournier1, Brett Buzzanga1,2, R. Steven Nerem4; 1NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 2University of South Florida, 3Tulane University, 4University of Colorado, Boulder |
13:30 - 13:55 |
| 1B-4 |
National Weather Service Forecasts for the late December 2022 to mid-January 2023 West Coast Atmospheric Rivers |
Mark Fresch*1, Alex Lamers2; 1NOAA National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center, 2NOAA National Weather Service Office of Water Prediction |
13:55 - 14:20 |
| |
Break |
14:20 - 14:30 |
| 1B-5 |
Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States |
Xiaodong Chen, L. Ruby Leung*, Yang Gao, Ying Liu, Mark Wigmosta; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory |
14:30 - 14:55 |
| 1B-6 |
2022 U.S. Billion-dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Analysis and Tools |
Adam Smith*, NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) |
14:55 - 15:20 |
| 1B-7 |
Climate and Weather Panel Discussion |
All Prsenters |
15:20 - 15:40 |
| 1C |
Day 1 Wrap-up |
|
15:40 - 15:50 |
| Day 2 Oral Presentations |
| |
Session 2A: Introduction |
Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES |
Time |
| 2A-1 |
NOAA’s Exploration of Future Probable Maximum Precipitation Datasets and Methods |
Kelly Mahoney*1, Janice Bytheway2, Diana Stovern2, James Correia3, Sarah Trojniak3, Ben Moore1; 1NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL), 2NOAA PSL/University of Colorado Boulder & Cooperative Institute for Earth System Research and Data Science (CIESRDS), 3University of Colorado Boulder & CIESRDS, NOAA/NWS/Weather Prediction Center |
10:00 - 10:25 |
| 2A-2 |
The “Perfect Storm”: Can Atmospheric Models Improve Confidence In Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)? |
Emilie Tarouilly*, University of California, Los Angeles |
10:25 - 10:50 |
| 2A-3 |
Improving the Reliability of Stochastic Modeling of Short-Duration Precipitation by Characterizing Spatiotemporal Correlation Structure and Marginal Distribution |
Giuseppe Mascaro*1, Simon Papalexio2, Daniel Wright3; 1Arizona State University, 2University of Calgary, 3University of Wisconsin-Madison |
10:50 - 11:15 |
| |
Break |
11:15 - 11:25 |
| 2A-4 |
Stochastic Design Storm Sequence in the Lower Mississippi River Basin |
Yuan Liu*, Daniel Wright; University of Wisconsin-Madison |
11:25 - 11:50 |
| 2A-5 |
An Update to the NOAA Atlas 14 National Precipitation Frequency Standard |
Sandra Palovic*, NOAA National Weather Service Office of Water Prediction |
11:50 - 12:15 |
| 2A-6 |
Precipitation Panel Discussion |
All Presenters |
12:15 - 12:35 |
| |
Lunch |
12:35 - 13:30 |
| |
Session 2B: Riverine Flooding |
Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES |
Time |
| 2B-1 |
Lowering the Barriers to Process-Based Probabilistic Flood Frequency Analysis using the NextGen Water Modeling Framework |
Daniel, Wright*1, Ankita Pradhan1, Mohammad Sadegh Abbasian1, Benjamin Fitzgerald1, Gary Aaron1, Fred Ogdan2, Mathew Williamson2; 1University of Wisconsin-Madison, 2NOAA National Water Service Office of Water Prediction |
13:30 - 13:55 |
| 2B-2 |
Towards the development of a high-resolution historical flood inundation reanalysis dataset for the conterminous United States |
Sudershan Gangrade*1, Ganesh Ghimire1, Shih-Chieh Kao1, Mario Morales-Hernandez2, Michael Kelleher1, Alfred Kalyanapu3; 1Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 2University of Zaragoza (Spain), 3Tennessee Technological University |
13:55 - 14:20 |
| 2B-3 |
Quantifying Uncertainty for Local Intense Precipitation and Riverine Flooding PFHA at Critical Structures on the Idaho National Labs Property |
Ryan Johnson*1, Shaun Carney1, Paul Micheletty1, Debbie Martin1, Bruce Barker2; 1RTI International, 2MGS Engineering |
14:20 - 14:45 |
| |
Break |
14:45 - 14:55 |
| 2B-4 |
Back to the Future: Paleoflood Hydrologic Analyses Provide Insights into Extreme Flood Risk in the Tennessee River Basin |
Lisa Davis*1, Ray Lombardi2, Matthew Gage1; 1University of Alabama, 2University of Memphis |
14:55 - 15:20 |
| 2B-5 |
Testing New Approaches to Integrating Sediment-Based Flood Records into Flood Frequency Models |
Ray Lombardi*1, Lisa Davis2, Tessa Harden3,4, John F. England, Jr.5; 1University of Memphis, 2University of Alabama, 3Thomas College, 4U.S. Geological Survey, 5U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center |
15:20 - 15:45 |
| 2B-6 |
Using Paleoflood Analyses to Improve Hydrologic Loading for USACE Dam Safety Risk Assessments: A Nationwide Approach |
Keith Kelson*1, Justin Pearce2, Amy LeFebvre2, Ryan Clark3, Bryan Freymuth4, Nathan Williams5, John England2; 1US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), South Pacific Division Dam Safety Production Center, 2USACE Risk Management Center, 3USACE Dam Safety Modification Mandatory Center of Expertise, 4USACE Northwest Division Risk Cadre, 5USACE Lakes and Rivers Division Risk Cadre |
15:45 - 16:10 |
| 2B-7 |
Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion |
All Presenters |
16:10 - 16:30 |
| 2C |
Day 2 Wrap-up |
|
16:30 - 16:40 |
| Day 3 Oral Presentations |
| |
Session 3A: Posters |
Session Chair: Thomas Aird, NRC/RES |
|
| 3A-1 |
Identifying and Cataloging Major Storm Events from Gridded Quantitative Precipitation Estimates for use in Stochastic Storm Transposition |
Alyssa Dietrich*, Eric King, Seth Lawler; Dewberry |
10:00 - 10:15 |
| 3A-2 |
A Bayesian Network and Monte Carlo Simulation PRA Approach for External Flood Probabilistic Risk Assessments at Nuclear Power Plants |
Joy Shen*, Michelle Bensi, Mohammad Modarres; University of Maryland, College Park |
10:15 - 10:30 |
| 3A-3 |
Probabilistic Compound Flood Hazard Assessment Using Two-Sided Conditional Sampling |
Somayeh Mohammadi*1, Ahmed Nasr2, Muthukumar Narayanaswamy1, Celso Ferreira1, Arslaan Khalid1; 1Michael Baker International Inc, 2University of Central Florida |
10:30 - 10:45 |
| 3A-4 |
Estimation of Probabilistic Flood Hazard Curve at the NPP Site Considering Storm Surge |
Beom-Jin Kim*, Minkyu, Kim; Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) |
10:45 - 11:00 |
| 3A-5 |
Compound Flood Risk Assessment of the Coastal Watersheds of Long Island and Long Island Sound in Connecticut and New York |
Liv Herdman*, Robert Welk, Robin Glas, Salme Cook, Kristina Masterson; U.S. Geological Survey New York Water Science Center |
11:00 - 11:15 |
| |
Break |
11:15 - 11:25 |
| 3A-6 |
Steps Toward Extensions of Existing Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis for Coastal Compound Flood Analysis Leveraging Bayesian Networks |
Ziyue Liu*1, Michelle, Bensi1, Meredith Carr2, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo2, Madison Yawn2, Luke Aucoin2; 1University of Maryland, College Park, 2U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer R&D Center, Coastal & Hydraulics Laboratory |
11:25 - 11:40 |
| 3A-7 |
Assessing Uncertainty Associated with Hurricane Predictions and Duration to Inform Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Nuclear Power Plants |
Kaveh Faraji Najarkolaie*, Michelle Bensi, University of Maryland, College Park |
11:40 - 11:55 |
| 3A-8 |
Assessment of Uncertainty Associated with the Development of Intensity Duration Frequency Curves under Changing Climate for the State of Maryland |
Azin Al Kajbaf*1, Michelle Bensi2, Kaye Brubaker2; 1Johns Hopkins University, 2University of Maryland, College Park |
11:55 - 12:10 |
| |
Lunch |
12:10 - 13:10 |
| |
Session 3B: Coastal Flooding |
Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES |
|
| 3B-1 |
Flood Inundation Modelling on Nuclear Power Plant Site due to Complex Disasters |
Byunghyun Kim*1, Jaewan Yoo, Beomjin Kim2, Minkyu Kim2; 1Kyungpook National University, 2Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute |
13:10 - 13:35 |
| 3B-2 |
Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for a Coastal Nuclear Power Plant Using Climate Change Projections |
Gorkem Gunger*, Zeynep Arslan; Minstry of Energy and Natural Resources, Turkey |
13:35 - 14:00 |
| 3B-3 |
Probabilistic Coastal Compound Flood Hazard Analysis Pilot Study |
Victor M. Gonzalez1, Meredith L. Carr*1, Luke Aucoin1, T. Chris Massey1, Ning Lin2, Dazhi Xi2, Norberto C. Nadal Caraballo1, Karlie Wellls1; 1U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, 2Princeton University |
14:00 - 14:25 |
| |
Break |
14:25 - 14:35 |
| 3B-4 |
HEC-RAS Modeling Framework and Lessons Learned from Coastal Flooding PFHA Pilot Study: Coupling and Automation of HEC-HMS and ADCIRC Outputs to 2D HEC-RAS Model Using Python |
Kathleen Haris*, Chase Hamilton, Weleska Echevarria-Doyle, Meredith Carr, Victor Gonzales Nieves; U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory |
14:35 - 15:00 |
| 3B-5 |
An Overview of a Multi-Agency Modeling Effort to Quantify Future Conditions in the Great Lakes |
Margaret Owensby*1, T. Chris Massey1, Robert Jensen1, Norberto Nadal-Caraballo1, Madison Yawn1, David Bucaro2, Johnna Potthoff2, Kaitlyn McClain2; 1U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, 2U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District |
15:00 - 15:25 |
| 3B-6 |
Coastal Flooding Panel Discussion |
All Presenters |
15:25 - 15:45 |
| 3C |
Day 3 Wrap-up |
|
15:45 - 15:55 |
| Day 4 Oral Presentations |
| |
Session 4A: Operational Experience |
Session Chair: Tom Aird, NRC/RES |
|
| 4A-1 |
PRA Modeling the FLEX Strategies for External Hazards |
John Hanna*, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
10:00 - 10:20 |
| 4A-2 |
Failure to Verify Flood Restoration Times at Millstone Unit 2 |
Dave Werkheiser*, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Region 1 |
10:20 - 10:40 |
| 4A-3 |
Impact of the 2022 Lake Erie Seiche the Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station |
Daniel Mills*1, Russ Cassara1, John Hanna2; 1U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Davis Bessie Resident Inspector, 2U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
10:40 - 11:00 |
| 4A-5 |
Operational Experience Panel Discussion |
All Presenters |
11:00 - 11:15 |
| |
Break |
11:15 - 11:25 |
| |
Session 4B: Wrapping Up |
Session Chair: Tom Aird, NRC/RES |
|
| 4B-1 |
On Fuzzy-Systems Modeling of Ponded Infiltration, as Analogue to Flooding, in Fractured-Porous Subsurface Media |
Boris Faybishenko*; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory |
11:25 - 11:50 |
| |
Lunch |
11:50 - 13:00 |
| 4B-2 |
Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment for Local Intense Precipitation at Nuclear Power Plant Sites – A Pilot Study |
Rajiv Prasad*1, Arun Veeramany1, Rajesh K. Singh1, Joseph Kanney2; 1Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 2U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission |
13:00 - 13:25 |
| 4B-3 |
Research Activities on Extreme External Hazard Risk Assessment of Korean NPP |
Minkyu Kim*, Daegi, Hahm; Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) |
14:00 - 14:25 |
| |
Break |
13:50 - 14:00 |
| 4B-4 |
External Flooding PRA Guidance |
Marko Randelovic*1, Raymond Schneider*2; 1Electric Power Research Institute, 2Westinghouse Company |
14:00 - 14:25 |
| 4B-5 |
A Proposal for Paradigm Shift in Hydrological Ensemble Predictions: From Parameter Inference to Probabilistic Error Estimation |
Vinh Ngoc Tran*1, Valeriy Y. Ivanov1, Donghui Xu1, Jongho Kim2; 1University of Michigan, 2University of Ulsan, South Korea |
14:25 - 14:50 |
| 4D |
Workshop Wrap-up Discussion |
|
14:50 - 15:10 |