Emergency Preparedness Significance Quantification Process: Proof of Concept (NUREG/CR-7160)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: August 2012
Date Published: June 2013

Prepared by:
Randolph Sullivan
Joseph Jones*
Jeff LaChance*
Fontini Walton*
Scott Weber*

*Sandia National Laboratories
Albuquerque, NM 87185

Operated by
Sandia Corporation
For the U.S. Department of Energy

Prepared for:
Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response
Division of Preparedness and Response
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington, DC 20555-0001

R. Sullivan, NRC Technical Lead

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Abstract

In an ongoing effort to increase effectiveness and efficiency through improved prioritization of regulatory activities, a decision process has been developed to aid in the determination of risk significance of Emergency Preparedness (EP) program elements. The DedUctive Quantification Index (DUQI) method was developed and used in a proof of concept application for two representative nuclear power plant sites. The results show the cumulative population dose is reduced through implementation of a formal EP program compared to conditions in which an emergency response would be implemented in an ad hoc manner. Dose was shown to be consistently lower for all analyses. The DUQI method was also applied to determine risk significance of specific EP elements. Analyses included a response where sirens are assumed not operable in the 2-5 mile area around the nuclear power plant, and for a delay in notification to offsite response organizations. Detailed consequence analysis modeling was performed using site specific information. The process used information from historical studies, such as NUREG-1150 combined with current knowledge. Data for specific sites was used in selected areas to increase the credibility of the product, but the results are not applicable to any specific site. Improvements were made to the modeling approach by simulating evacuee road loading in greater detail than previous studies. The 95^th percentile cumulative population dose results were produced and used to support the study conclusions.