Numerical Modeling of Local Intense Precipitation Processes (NUREG/CR-7287)

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Publication Information

Manuscript Completed: July 2023
Date Published: July 2023

Prepared by:
M. Levent Kavvas
M. Mure-ravaud
A. Dib
K. Ishida

Hydrologic Research Laboratory
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering
University of California, Davis
1 Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616

Elena Yegorova, NRC Project Manager

Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Washington DC 20555-0001

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Abstract

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) are recognized for their ability to generate intense precipitation that may in turn create disastrous floods. In this study, the suitability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate local intense precipitation processes within severe MCSs and TCs was first assessed. Simulation results were compared with observations from the Stage IV precipitation dataset. Under an appropriate choice of the model’s options, the model could reproduce the location, intensity, and structure of the intense precipitation fields. Second, physically-based storm transposition methods for the storm transpositions of MCSs and TCs were developed and applied to one MCS and four TCs. In each case, the objective was to find the amount of shift which maximizes the precipitation depth over a target area. Finally, future conditions from a General Circulation Model were downscaled over two regions (one for MCSs and one for TCs). The most intense future MCS and TC were then transposed to maximize the precipitation depth over the target area.